This chart shows Australia's oil import picture from Q1 2024 through Q1 2026, with two views: by supplier and by product type. The situation is actually quite alarming right now.
Australia's structural vulnerability: around 80 to 90% of its fuel demand is import dependent, with domestic refining barely covering 20% of demand and product stocks sitting at around 30 days, still well below the IEA's 90-day threshold.
Who supplies it: South Korea alone accounts for roughly a quarter of Australia's imports, about half of which is diesel. Jet fuel has largely been sourced from China while gasoline flows are mostly sourced from Singapore and South Korea.
The trigger for the current crisis has been a combination of disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and export restrictions imposed by key Asian suppliers. China, Thailand, and South Korea have all introduced full or partial curbs on refined product exports. Imports from the Middle East are also disrupted, and China recently banned exports of key fuels.
Potential relief: India could emerge as a natural alternative destination, as refiners redirecting previously Europe-bound diesel volumes look for new markets. The US is also a candidate, though distance is a significant factor.
As of late March 2026, Australia has 37 days' worth of petrol, 30 days of diesel, and 29 days of jet fuel. Australia has the largest trade deficit in refined oil products in the world, is the largest importer of diesel, and has the lowest oil stockpiles of all IEA members, all by a wide margin.
Japan and South Korea both hold over 200 days of stocks; Thailand around 95 days. These stats are what formed part of Morgan Stanley's assessment that Australia is one of the western developed nations most likely to be adversely affected.
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