The Archive
Geopolitics, financial markets and real estate investment. Decoded through a lens most analysts don't have access to.
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The Greens forced a ban on SMSF borrowing for residential property. The people most affected aren't the wealthy investors the policy was aimed at.
Stocks & Shares4% versus 24%. The ASX 200's concentration in banks and miners cost Australian investors a quarter of their potential return over the past year.
Stocks & SharesA US$124 million Slinger order is contracted revenue. A conditional laser weapons joint venture is not. The share price reaction is pricing in both as if they're the same thing.
GeopoliticsNo single supplier should provide more than 60% of G7 rare earth imports by 2030. Japan started de-risking in 2010 and is still 75% reliant on China today.
GeopoliticsChina didn't create the push to net zero, but it made the earliest, biggest bet on the hardware it runs on. That bet has paid off faster than most governments planned for.
A drilling campaign in the Bedout Basin could rival the North West Shelf. BP's involvement says the geological thesis has earned serious scrutiny.
GeopoliticsWashington is now hiring mining engineers with national security urgency. Ford's CEO says its own magnet supply runs day to day. The implication isn't subtle.
Tax & BudgetAmpol just got cleared to absorb a competitor's network with a forced divestiture attached. Forced sales rarely deliver the competition they promise.
Stocks & SharesPetrol sales collapsed 30.3% year on year. EV penetration hit a record 20%. This is no longer a forecast risk, it's a current earnings question.
Tax & BudgetCheap money created inflation. Inflation entrenched inequality. The policy response to inequality created more demand pressure. Two governments made this bed.
The market doesn't care about your credentials. The Australian Army's Military Appreciation Process offers a better model for stress-testing an investment thesis than academic finance ever has.
Stocks & SharesDroneShield is up 400% and trades at 999 times earnings. The supply chain underneath the obvious names tells a much cheaper story.
GeopoliticsA seven-nation declaration to lock in secure silicon supply chains is real. The non-binding fine print is the part the headlines skip.
GeopoliticsAustralian farmers are getting hit from two directions at once: fuel and fertiliser costs already up, and an El Niño building that could cut rainfall 28% below normal.
GeopoliticsFrom June 15, Beijing tightens control over its strategic minerals sector. The tension is structural: China is locking down supply precisely as the West tries to route around it.
CBA's earnings grew 1% a year while its share price grew 19%. A great business and a great investment are not the same thing.
Stocks & Shares6,000 drones sold to 15 militaries across 12 countries. The customer list is real. The $41 million valuation already assumes the next phase goes smoothly.
PropertySydney and Melbourne are falling while Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide are doing the heavy lifting. The national headline number hides a 24 percentage point divergence.
PropertyA new 20% cap on high debt-to-income loans is a direct constraint on the high leverage strategies that have driven investor returns this cycle.
Stocks & SharesThe biggest IPO in history. Also a company that lost $4.28 billion in three months and carries $20 billion in short term debt. Both things are true.
Only 17% of Australian adults demonstrate high financial literacy. The decline is steepest among those aged 15 to 34, the cohort about to make the biggest financial decisions of their lives.
Investing StrategyEvery headline right now is a warning label. The financial media is very good at making the present feel catastrophic, and very poor at accounting for what it costs you to act on that fear.
Tax & BudgetDuring COVID, the government needed money fast. The mechanism it used was quiet, costly, and never put to a vote.
Tax & BudgetThe most significant change to how investment gains are taxed in over two decades shifts the maths in favour of income investing, even for the generation it claims to be helping.
PropertyIt sounds too good: rent out your home, let tenants cover the mortgage, build wealth tax free. For most people, the cashflow doesn't actually work that way.
Negative gearing restricted to new builds is fine. Replacing the CGT discount across every asset class while existing investors are grandfathered in is the part worth scrutinising.
PropertyCombine the 5% deposit scheme with the First Home Super Saver Scheme and couples can put $100,000 of tax-advantaged savings to work on one purchase.
Tax & BudgetThe old playbook of geared property in your own name is effectively retired. Here's what replaces it, and why your structure decision now matters more than your asset decision.
Tax & Budget75 cents retained versus 53 cents in personal hands. A company structure offers compounding advantages that trusts and personal ownership can no longer replicate.
Tax & BudgetAmid every other change the budget made, this CGT exemption survived untouched, and it matters more now than before.
The man who returned 29.2% annually for 13 years thought macro forecasting was a waste of time. His reasoning still holds up.
Investing StrategyTwo ASX-listed ETFs make the choice concrete: 5.5% franked income, or 16.19% growth with a 28% drawdown along the way.
PropertyThe yield-versus-rate equation, and the negative gearing wild card that could change the maths overnight.
Stocks & SharesUber, Rivian, GYG. The IPO price is not the ground floor. It's closer to the roof.
Markets wanted to believe Hormuz opened. What actually happened was an indefinite pause with no incentive for either side to settle.
Tax & BudgetA$425 billion sounds enormous until you check the accounting methodology behind it. The real increase is a fraction of the headline.
GeopoliticsYou can buy all the frigates and fighter jets you like, but none of them move without fuel, and Australia doesn't have any resilience there.
GeopoliticsThe Prime Minister flew to Southeast Asia and came back with roughly one day's worth of national diesel demand. He called it a win.
AI fear hit software stocks across the board. The company behind the TASER and police body cams got caught in the wash, but its actual numbers tell a different story.
Geopolitics28% of vegetable growers have already cut or stopped planting. The shortage won't show up on shelves for months, which is exactly why it's not getting attention.
PropertyClearance rates have held below 60% for a second straight week. Sydney and Melbourne are leading the slowdown.
Tax & BudgetTreasury is reportedly modelling a cut to the capital gains tax discount on residential property. Here's what's actually being floated and what it would cost.
GeopoliticsAustralia's gold institution is pivoting toward critical minerals processing, and it sits at the centre of a quietly significant asymmetry in how Australia experiences stagflation.
Australia has the lowest oil stockpiles of any IEA member, by a wide margin. The chart behind that statement is worth seeing.
Investing StrategyBerkshire Hathaway is sitting on the largest cash pile in its history. Buffett says the market has barely dipped. Here's what that actually means.
Tax & BudgetThe type of downturn we get determines which opportunities show up. Here's how to read the signals.
Tax & BudgetEducational overview only. Recession, stagflation, and depression each reward a different playbook, and Australia's commodity exposure changes the maths.
Commodities traders are terrified for a reason most people aren't talking about. Here's how oil, fertiliser, and private credit are quietly reinforcing each other.
Investing StrategyA county fair bull-weighing contest explains why prediction markets work, and why I think in probabilities instead of certainties.
Investing StrategyA practical breakdown of what I'm actually doing with my own money right now, not what I think you should do.
Tax & BudgetEconomists once thought it was nearly impossible. Here's the condition that breaks the normal economic playbook.
Tax & BudgetAn above-inflation minimum wage rise sounds like compassion. Look at the actual outcome instead of the intention.
Rates are up and so are Brisbane house prices. Here's what that actually does to your monthly repayment.
GeopoliticsThe scary scenario everyone's focused on is the wrong one. The real damage comes from somewhere quieter.
Investing StrategyGreen doesn't always mean good and red doesn't always mean bad. Here's why I'm watching US shares while everyone else watches Australian property.
Investing StrategyIt starts with deductive reasoning about geopolitics, not a stock screener. Here's the actual process, walked through with a real example.
Brent crude is up nearly 30% in a month. Here's why, and what comes next.
GeopoliticsDecades of underinvestment in fuel reserves are catching up with us, right as global supply gets shaky.
Stocks & SharesDefence stocks are rallying hard on the Middle East conflict. Whether that rally has further to run depends on something most investors aren't pricing in.
GeopoliticsVenezuela and Iran have been quietly subsidising China's energy bill for years. That arrangement is now under serious pressure.
Financial Disclaimer. This content is general in nature and has been prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial situation, or needs. It does not constitute financial product advice under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). Before acting on any information contained in this post, you should consider whether it is appropriate for your circumstances and, if necessary, seek independent financial advice. References to specific companies, markets, prediction tools, or investment strategies are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any financial product. Past events and probabilistic frameworks discussed are not reliable indicators of future performance.