Australian home values were 1.6% higher over the three months to April 2026, the softest three month reading since April 2025. That headline looks fine until you pull it apart. The two largest cities are dragging in one direction, and the rest of the country is running the other way. This is not one market. It is four or five markets wearing one price tag.
Sydney and Melbourne both fell 0.6% in April alone, while national growth crawled to 0.3% for the month, the slowest pace since January 2025. Stock is rising in both cities, vendors are discounting more, and clearance rates have slipped below 60%. The cyclical tide has turned in the southern capitals.
Meanwhile, the three cities doing the heavy lifting are Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide. Perth led all capitals in March with 2.5% monthly growth, Brisbane gained 1.8%, and Adelaide added 1.2%. The structural driver behind this is not complicated. Queensland accounted for over 25% of Australia's total population growth since 2020, but less than 20% of dwellings completed were located there. You cannot grow faster than you build and expect prices to fall.
The divergence between Perth and Melbourne now sits at 24 percentage points on an annual basis, the widest reading in Cotality's modern dataset.
Regional spotlight: the standout regional market right now is WA's Bunbury corridor. Bunbury recorded 9.8% growth over just the first four months of 2026, the strongest performance of any regional sub-market in the country. Queensland's Darling Downs came in second at 7.9% over the same period. Both are being driven by affordability migration out of their respective capital cities and chronically insufficient supply.
Nationally, rental vacancy sits at just 1.7%, well below the decade average of 2.5%, with annual rental growth reaccelerating to 5.7% as of April. Tight rentals continue to push renters toward purchase decisions, supporting the bottom end of the market even as rate pressures bite at the top. The RBA raised the cash rate again at its March meeting. The market that was already stretched is stretching further. Pick your city carefully.
"Real estate cannot be lost or stolen, nor can it be carried away. Purchased with common sense, paid for in full, and managed with reasonable care, it is about the safest investment in the world."— Franklin D. Roosevelt
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